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Treasure Coast of FL – Tropical Storm Watch Now In Effect (Fay)

ALERT 1 – Hurricane Local Statement

TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT
Issue Time: 6:30AM EDT, Monday Aug 18, 2008
Valid Until: 6:30AM EDT, Tuesday Aug 19, 2008
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TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6:30AM EDT

Urgent – Immediate Broadcast Requested Tropical Storm Fay Local Statement National Weather Service Melbourne FL 630 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2008

… Tropical Storm Watch Issued For The East Coast From Sebastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet…

… Tropical Storm Fay Over Cuba And Continuing Toward The Florida Peninsula…

… Areas Affected… This Statement Applies To East Central Florida.

… Watches/Warnings… A Tropical Storm Watch Has Been Issued From Sebastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet. The Tropical Storm Watch For Lake Okeechobee Has Been Upgraded To A Warning. A Tropical Storm Wind Watch Continues For Okeechobee And Osceola Counties.

A Flood Watch Has Been Issued For Okeechobee… Saint Lucie And Martin Counties.

… Storm Information… At 500 AM EDT… The Center Of Tropical Storm Fay Was Located Over Cuba Near Latitude 22.5 North… Longitude 80.9 West. This Position Is About 155 Miles South Southeast Of Key West And About 410 Miles South Of Orlando.

Fay Is Moving Toward The North Northwest Near 12 Mph. A Turn Toward The North Is Tuesday And Fay Is Expected To North Up The Florida Peninsula. Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 50 Mph… With Higher Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Possible… And Fay Should Become A Hurricane Before Reaching The Florida Peninsula.

Indian River-St. Lucie-Martin- 630 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2008

… Tropical Storm Watch Now In Effect…

… New Information… The Latest Forecast Track For Tropical Storm Fay Has Been Adjusted Slightly Eastward With A Little Earlier Arrival. A Further Eastward Adjustment May Be Required Later Today.

A Tropical Storm Watch Has Been Issued From Sebastian Inlet To Jupiter Inlet And A Tropical Storm Warning Has Been Issued For Lake Okeechobee.

A Flood Watch Has Been Issued For Okeechobee… Saint Lucie And Martin Counties Through Tuesday Evening. The Watch May Need To Be Extended Northward Later Today.

… Areas Affected… This Statement Recommends Actions To Be Taken By Persons In Indian River… Saint Lucie And Martin Counties.

… Precautionary/Preparedness Actions… A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The Defined Area Within The Next 36 Hours. It Is Recommended That You Prepare Your Home Or Business And Review Your Evacuation Plan. Listen Frequently To Noaa Weather Radio… Or Other Local News Media… For The Latest Information On This Evolving Tropical Weather Threat.

Residents Should Finalize Planning For Heavy Rain And Strong Winds And Be Ready To Put Their Plans Into Motion Later Today If The Watch Is Upgraded To A Warning.

When Making Decisions… Do Not Focus On The Exact Forecast Track. Adjustments Will Likely Be Made To The Forecast Track As The Storm Approaches And Impacts Can Occur Far From The Center Of The Storm. Always Heed The Advice Of Local Officials And Comply With Any Orders That Are Issued.

Finalize Preparedness Plans And Replenish Storm Provisions Such As… Batteries For Radios And Flashlights… Drinking Water… Canned Goods Or Dried Food… First Aid Supplies… Baby Supplies… And Prescription Medicines. Gas Up Your Vehicles And Have Some Extra Fuel On Hand For Generators And Chain Saws If Needed. It Is Also Best To Have Some Extra Cash As Credit Cards May Not Be An Option If Electric Power Goes Out. Keep Your Cell Phone Well Charged Before The Storm Arrives.

Protect Windows And Doors Against Tropical Storm Force Winds With Higher Gusts. Loose Outdoor Objects Should Be Brought Indoors Or Tied Down.

Mobile Home Residents Should Consider Whether To Temporarily Evacuate To More Substantial Shelter Until The High Wind And Tornado Threat Passes. Be Ready To Leave If A Tropical Storm Or Hurricane Warning Is Issued… Or If You Are Directed To Do So By Local Officials.

… Winds… Given The Latest Official Forecast… Along With Inherent Forecast Uncertainties In Cyclone Track And Intensity… There Is A Limited Threat To Life And Property From High Winds For East Central Florida… Including Indian River… St. Lucie And Martin Counties.

Winds Are Forecast To Increase In The Watch Area Tuesday Morning… Becoming Strongest During The Afternoon And Overnight Hours.

The Potential Exists For Winds To Cause Damage To Carports… Awnings… And Pool Enclosures. Some Damage May Also Occur To Unanchored Mobile Homes. Small Branches May Break Off Trees… And Loose Objects May Be Blown About. Winds May Become Dangerous On Bridges… Especially For High Profile Vehicles… Forcing Closures. Isolated To Scattered Power Outages Are Possible.

… Probability Of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Conditions… At This Time… There Is About A 45 To 55 Percent Chance For Tropical Storm Conditions With Fay. These Probabilities Have Increased Since Sunday.

… Storm Surge And Storm Tide… For Lake Okeechobee… Assuming The Current Forecast And A Lake Level Near 11.3 Feet… No Significant Storm Surge And Storm Tide Impact Is Expected. However… Large Fluctuations In Lake Level Are Expected As The Winds Shift In Direction And Speed With The Passing Storm.

… Inland Flooding… Rainfall Amounts Of 3 To 6 Inches… With Locally Higher Amounts… Are Possible Through Tuesday Night. A Flood Watch Has Been Issued For Southern Florida… Including Okeechobee… Saint Lucie And Martin Counties. The Flood Watch May Be Extended Northward Later Today. Those Living In Areas Prone To Flooding Should Be Prepared To Take Immediate Action Should Flooding Develop.

Scattered To Numerous Showers And Storms Will Develop Later Today As The Moisture Associated With Fay Continues To Surge Northward. Rainbands Directly Associated With Fay Are Forecast To Begin Impacting The Area Tonight Or Early Tuesday… Becoming More Frequent And Heavier Later Tuesday And Tuesday Night.

… Tornadoes… Much Of East Central Florida Will Be Located In The Right Front Quadrant Of Fay. Historically… This Quadrant Is The Favored Area For Tornadoes And Tornadic Waterspouts… Especially Within Outer Rainbands. The Threat For Tornadoes And Waterspouts Will Increase This Afternoon As Outer Rainbands Approach From The Southeast. The Highest Threat May Occur Tonight And Early Tuesday. Listen For Possible Watches And Warnings.

… Next Update… The Next Local Statement Will Be Issued By The National Weather Service In Melbourne Around 12 Noon… Or Sooner If Conditions Warrant.

For A Graphical Version Of This Hurricane Local Statement… See The Melbourne National Weather Service Web Site At Weather.Gov And Then Click On East Central Florida.

T.S. Fay Weather Statement Monday, August 18, 12:00 a.m.

/O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM– WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD- INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE- NORTHERN BREVARD- 1158 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

MORE WIND WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY MORNING…

…NEW INFORMATION… IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY BE INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR ORANGE…SEMINOLE…AND LAKE COUNTIES.

…AREAS AFFECTED… THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR INTERESTS IN MARTIN…SAINT LUCIE…INDIAN RIVER…ORANGE…SEMINOLE… BREVARD… LAKE…AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

ALTHOUGH WATCHES HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA…RESIDENTS AND MARINERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF ANY NEARING HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY.

…PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… IN CASE ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NEEDED…THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND REPLENISH STORM PROVISIONS SUCH AS…BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS… DRINKING WATER…CANNED GOODS OR DRIED FOOD… FIRST AID SUPPLIES…BABY SUPPLIES…AND PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES.

RESIDENTS SHOULD PLAN TO WAKE UP A LITTLE EARLIER ON MONDAY MORNING IN ORDER TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST…THEN ADJUST THEIR DAY ACCORDINGLY.

…WINDS… THE SPECIFIC AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS AND GUSTS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE DURING THE EVENT. YET…CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE WINDY FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY…WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STILL A POSSIBILITY. ALSO…CONVECTIVE GUSTS WITHIN RAINBANDS MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.

GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST…ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY…THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM HIGH WINDS.

…PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS… AT THIS TIME…THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH FAY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR ORANGE…SEMINOLE…LAKE…AND INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS REMAINS LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

…STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE… GIVEN THAT FAY WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE INLAND DIRECTION…LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER…IF FAY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE OR SHIFTS A BIT MORE EASTWARD…THEN THERE MAY BE A VERY LOW BUT NOTEWORTHY THREAT DURING THE PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE AND ONSHORE WINDS. SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD PROMPT HEIGHTS OF 2 FEET OR LESS. EITHER WAY…SURF CONDITIONS MAY BECOME ROUGH WITH SOME BEACH EROSION TAKING PLACE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE…ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE LEVEL NEAR 11.3 FEET…NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER…LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL ARE EXPECTED AS THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE PASSING STORM.

…INLAND FLOODING… ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK…RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH FAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY…A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

…TORNADOES… MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY. STATISTICALLY…THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS…ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE OUTER REACHES OF FAY APPROACH THE AREA. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

…MARINE… MARINERS ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE LATEST ON MARINE WINDS AND SEAS. INTERESTS AT AREA PORTS…MARINAS…AND DOCKS SHOULD BE READY TO ACT IF A WATCH OR WARNING IS ISSUED ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET.

…NEXT UPDATE… THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 AM EDT…OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

T.S. Fay Update From and Affecting Central Florida

(AKA God Damnit Not Again, Weren’t Frances, Jeanne and Wilma enough???)

/O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM– WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD- INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE- NORTHERN BREVARD- 622 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

…NEW INFORMATION… ALTHOUGH WATCHES HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA…RESIDENTS AND MARINERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF ANY NEARING HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY.

THIS STATEMENT ALSO PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR INTERESTS IN MARTIN…SAINT LUCIE…INDIAN RIVER…ORANGE…SEMINOLE…BREVARD… LAKE…AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

…PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… IN CASE ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NEEDED…THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND REPLENSIH STORM PROVISIONS SUCH AS…BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS…DRINKING WATER…CANNED GOODS OR DRIED FOOD… FIRST AID SUPPLIES…BABY SUPPLIES…AND PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES.

…STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE… GIVEN THAT FAY WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE INLAND DIERCTION…LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AT THIS TIME.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE…ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE LEVEL NEAR 11.3 FEET…NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER…LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL ARE EXPECTED AS THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE PASSING STORM.

…WINDS… THE SPECIFIC FORECAST IS FOR WINDS AND GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE DURING THE EVENT. HOWEVER…CONVECTIVE GUSTS WITHIN RAINBANDS MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.

GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST…ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY…THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM HIGH WINDS.

MARINERS ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE LATEST ON MARINE WINDS AND SEAS. INTERESTS AT AREA PORTS…MARINAS…AND DOCKS SHOULD BE READY TO ACT IF A WATCH OR WARNING IS ISSUED ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET.

…STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE… GIVEN THAT FAY WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE INLAND DIERCTION…LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AT THIS TIME.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE…ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE LEVEL NEAR 11.3 FEET…NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER…LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL ARE EXPECTED AS THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE PASSING STORM.

…INLAND FLOODING… ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK…RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH FAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY…A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

…TORNADOES… MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY. STATISTICALLY…THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS…ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE OUTER REACHES OF FAY APPROACH THE AREA. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

…NEXT UPDATE… THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT…OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.