T.S. Fay Weather Statement Monday, August 18, 12:00 a.m.

/O.CON.KMLB.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM– WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE- INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD- INDIAN RIVER-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE- NORTHERN BREVARD- 1158 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

MORE WIND WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BY EARLY MORNING…

…NEW INFORMATION… IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY BE INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR ORANGE…SEMINOLE…AND LAKE COUNTIES.

…AREAS AFFECTED… THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR INTERESTS IN MARTIN…SAINT LUCIE…INDIAN RIVER…ORANGE…SEMINOLE… BREVARD… LAKE…AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

ALTHOUGH WATCHES HAVE NOT BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA…RESIDENTS AND MARINERS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF ANY NEARING HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY.

…PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… IN CASE ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NEEDED…THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND REPLENISH STORM PROVISIONS SUCH AS…BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS… DRINKING WATER…CANNED GOODS OR DRIED FOOD… FIRST AID SUPPLIES…BABY SUPPLIES…AND PRESCRIPTION MEDICINES.

RESIDENTS SHOULD PLAN TO WAKE UP A LITTLE EARLIER ON MONDAY MORNING IN ORDER TO CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST…THEN ADJUST THEIR DAY ACCORDINGLY.

…WINDS… THE SPECIFIC AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS AND GUSTS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE DURING THE EVENT. YET…CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE WINDY FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY…WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS STILL A POSSIBILITY. ALSO…CONVECTIVE GUSTS WITHIN RAINBANDS MAY BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.

GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST…ALONG WITH INHERENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES IN CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY…THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM HIGH WINDS.

…PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS… AT THIS TIME…THERE IS A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH FAY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FOR ORANGE…SEMINOLE…LAKE…AND INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS REMAINS LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.

…STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE… GIVEN THAT FAY WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE INLAND DIRECTION…LITTLE IMPACT FROM STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER…IF FAY STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE OR SHIFTS A BIT MORE EASTWARD…THEN THERE MAY BE A VERY LOW BUT NOTEWORTHY THREAT DURING THE PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE AND ONSHORE WINDS. SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD PROMPT HEIGHTS OF 2 FEET OR LESS. EITHER WAY…SURF CONDITIONS MAY BECOME ROUGH WITH SOME BEACH EROSION TAKING PLACE. RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM.

FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE…ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST AND A LAKE LEVEL NEAR 11.3 FEET…NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE IMPACT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER…LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN LAKE LEVEL ARE EXPECTED AS THE WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION AND SPEED WITH THE PASSING STORM.

…INLAND FLOODING… ASSUMING THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK…RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH FAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. CONSEQUENTLY…A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

…TORNADOES… MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE LOCATED IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF FAY. STATISTICALLY…THIS QUADRANT IS THE FAVORED AREA FOR TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS…ESPECIALLY WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS THE OUTER REACHES OF FAY APPROACH THE AREA. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

…MARINE… MARINERS ARE URGED TO CHECK THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE LATEST ON MARINE WINDS AND SEAS. INTERESTS AT AREA PORTS…MARINAS…AND DOCKS SHOULD BE READY TO ACT IF A WATCH OR WARNING IS ISSUED ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF JUPITER INLET.

…NEXT UPDATE… THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE AROUND 6 AM EDT…OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

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About lifeinpawprints

I'm a 40-something single mom blogging from the East Coast of Florida, trying to have faith in a world that has not been so kind. Always searching for a creative outlet, be it blogging, photography or crafting things from god-knows-what.

Posted on August 18, 2008, in Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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